AS IS TRADITION now in Irish elections none of the the biggest parties are anywhere close to having enough seats to rule on their own, so the Irish public will watching closely as parties begin negotiations over potential coalition formations.
How do the numbers work and what realistic combinations gets the country closest to a government? WWN’s done the research and we think these are the most likely combinations:
First, the numbers:
Sinn Féin 37 seats
Fianna Fáil 38 seats
Fine Gael 35
Green Party 12
Social Democrats 6
People Before Profit/Solidarity Party 5
Independents & Others 21 (may include racists)
1) Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and a handful of independents
Potential big policy clashes and compromises: Plenty. This match up could ensure everyone can be equally disappointed they voted either Sinn Féin or Fianna Fáil.
Pros: Could make the most sense and helps the two bigger parties avoid needing the Green Party’s 12 TDs and the threat of being bored to death with the whole ‘we’re killing the planet’ buzz.
Cons: Making deals with independents like the Healy Raes could see Kerry granted drink-as-much-as-you-like driving laws, and Noel Grealish supporters allowed to burn down a hotel earmarked for Direct Provision just to let them get it out of their system.
2) Sinn Féin, Greens, Labour, Social Democrats, People Before Profit/Solidarity Party, Independents, Judean People’s Front, Anti-Social Democrats
The numbers just don’t stack up for a Sinn Féin led left-wing government.
3) All-Star Election Best Of
Out go the results, in comes everyone’s favourite politicians from a bygone era.
Get Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny, Gerry Adams, Mary Harney, John Bruton, actually no, not John Bruton. A whole host of other former party leaders for a reality-TV show style Mega Government.
4) Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and the Greens
Potential big policy clashes and compromises: major fights between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over who to benefit more; builders or landlords. A compromise will be reached with landlord builders winning out.
Pros: Would further unite country over their shared dislike of the two Civil War parties.
Cons: Again, Greens moaning about ‘urgent action needed’ to ‘save’ the ‘planet’. Buzzkill central. Small matter of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil coming together being like if Darth Vader teamed up with Darth Vader.
5) Another election
Potential big policy clashes and compromises: everyone is allowed to go back to pretending they can deliver all their undeliverable election promises.
Pros: Majority of TDs haven’t even started to take down their election posters.
Cons: Voters hate individual parties too much for an election ever result in one party getting the numbers of seats that ensures we don’t end up in exactly the same situation again.